Singles strength blends: skill-adjusted win rate (controlling for player-pool quality by comparing top-player win rate to overall faction win rate), top-N event representation (Top 8 placements weighted by event size), win-rate variance (consistent versus high-ceiling), and recency trend.
Teams strength blends: pairing flexibility (frequency of favorable assignments), cross-matchup coverage (fraction of meta the faction covers well), anchor capacity (performance when forced to absorb worst matchup), and synergy (complementary pairings in successful rosters).
A faction's score is the weighted sum of normalized components plus a constant calibrated so the all-faction median sits at 50. Confidence intervals reflect the joint uncertainty across input components. Predictive lists are published pre-MFM and compared to actuals at cycle end in a retrospective essay.
Read the full methodology page →