Warhammer 40k Tournament Data Dashboard — Quantum

COVERAGE THROUGH 2026-07-09 AWAITING

EVENTS 10 · 2026-W27

GAMES 1123

WEEKLY · 10 events · 1123 games

ABOUT THIS DATA

Every stat on this dashboard reads the Archive’s own first-party tournament pull from Best Coast Pairings — editorially curated by the Editor before commit, limited to 5+ round events, and faction-anonymous (no player names appear in any published output). It is the Archive computing on public event records, not a republished third-party win-rate table. Win rate is wins / (wins + losses + draws); the temporal toggle above slices the same pull by week, current patch, or edition lifetime.

HOW TO READ QUANTUM

Quantum is the Archive’s measurement layer — what the tournament data says about the game, before anyone interprets it. Every stat tab reads first-party Best Coast Pairings tournament data (5+ round events, faction-anonymous), sliced by the temporal window you pick above.

The dashboard measures — that is the Archivist. Interpretation lives on Awakenings — that is the Editor. Weigh them as separate acts.

Faction Performance (this tab) — per-faction win rate (Wilson 95% CI bar — wider band = smaller sample), field share, round attrition. Δ movement lives in the headline strip.
Matchups — the full 28×28 faction-vs-faction grid, heat-striped against each row faction’s own win rate.
Detail — margin profile, representation, consistency, round attrition tables.
Disposition — the 11th-edition list-building posture surfaces (populate as first-party 11e data lands).
ELO — the cumulative player rating ladder (not windowed — the temporal toggle doesn’t apply).
Tier List ↗ — the headline verdict: the Strength Index.

VITAL SIGNS · COLUMN REFRESH STATUS

PERFORMANCE

2026-06-03

STALE · 39D AGO

PRACTICE

2026-06-27

FRESH · 15D AGO

DIGEST

2026-07-02

FRESH · 10D AGO

TOP WIN RATE

59.3% Emperor’s Children

z +1.32 · CI [49.1–68.9]

STEEPEST CLIMB

+20pp Imperial Agents

w/w · Death Guard +16.7

SHARPEST DROP

-35pp Black Templars

w/w · Chaos Space Marines -14.4

LATE-GAME LEADER

+45.5pp World Eaters

round Δ · climbs late

HIDDEN GEM

Grey Knights 54.9%

N=51 · 2.4% field share

FACTION PERFORMANCE

PER-FACTION WIN RATE · WILSON 95% CI (REAL WR, DRAWS EXCLUDED) · ACTIVE WINDOW · SORTABLE

STAT:

#	FACTION	WIN RATE · 95% CI	REPRESENTATION · FIELD SHARE	ROUND Δ · ATTRITION	VP DIFF
1	Adepta Sororitas	52.3% [37.9–66.3] READ WITH CARE	+3.7	0%	46
2	Adeptus Custodes	53.7% [44.9–62.4]	+2.3	13%	126
3	Adeptus Mechanicus	57.4% [44.9–69] READ WITH CARE	+0.3	0%	63
4	Aeldari	33.3% [21.4–47.9] READ WITH CARE	-8	0%	45
5	Astra Militarum	39.2% [27–52.9] READ WITH CARE	-8.1	0%	55
6	Black Templars	21.7% [9.7–41.9] READ WITH CARE	-17.7	0%	23
7	Blood Angels	38.2% [23.9–55] READ WITH CARE	-6.8	0%	35
8	Chaos Daemons	50.7% [39.3–62] READ WITH CARE	+5.9	11%	74
9	Chaos Knights	45.2% [31.2–60.1] READ WITH CARE	-7.3	0%	44
10	Chaos Space Marines	43.2% [33.7–53.2]	-6	13%	97
11	Dark Angels	49.2% [36.8–61.6] READ WITH CARE	-3.6	29%	65
12	Death Guard	56% [44.8–66.7]	-5.3	13%	79
13	Deathwatch	45.8% [27.9–64.9] READ WITH CARE	+4.5	0%	25
14	Drukhari	46.3% [35.8–57.1]	-3.4	0%	80

#	FACTION	WIN RATE · 95% CI	REPRESENTATION · FIELD SHARE	ROUND Δ · ATTRITION	VP DIFF
15	Emperor’s Children	59.3% [49.1–68.9]	+5.5	43%	93
16	Genestealer Cults	40.9% [23.3–61.3] READ WITH CARE	+1.7	0%	22
17	Grey Knights	54.9% [41.4–67.7] READ WITH CARE	+2.2	14%	51
18	Imperial Agents	60% [23.1–88.2] READ WITH CARE	+13.2	0%	5
19	Imperial Knights	49% [39.5–58.6]	+1.6	11%	104
20	Leagues of Votann	51% [41.5–60.4]	-2.1	0%	108
21	Necrons	55.3% [47.6–62.7]	+3	30%	170
22	Orks	55.8% [45.8–65.4]	+9.4	10%	97
23	Space Marines	52.8% [44.6–60.9]	-1.1	63%	146
24	Space Wolves	45.8% [35.5–56.5]	-6.1	0%	85
25	T’au Empire	52.9% [44–61.7]	+2.8	25%	120
26	Thousand Sons	54% [44.8–62.9]	+3.5	22%	113
27	Tyranids	46.2% [38.2–54.3]	+0.7	22%	147
28	World Eaters	37% [25.4–50.4] READ WITH CARE	-9	0%	56

#	FACTION	WIN RATE · 95% CI	REPRESENTATION · FIELD SHARE	ROUND Δ · ATTRITION	VP DIFF
1	Adepta Sororitas	49.5% [42.7–56.3]	+0.2	8%	220
2	Adeptus Custodes	47.4% [43–51.9]	+0.2	11%	534
3	Adeptus Mechanicus	47.1% [39.9–54.5]	-3.4	6%	186
4	Aeldari	40% [34.1–46.2]	-4.7	0%	267
5	Astra Militarum	38.3% [33.2–43.7]	-6.2	6%	347
6	Black Templars	50.8% [41.9–59.7]	-2.3	9%	123
7	Blood Angels	49.3% [42.5–56]	+0	0%	216
8	Chaos Daemons	54.1% [48.5–59.6]	+3.7	11%	331
9	Chaos Knights	36.2% [30.2–42.7]	-5.1	7%	245
10	Chaos Space Marines	50.5% [45.7–55.3]	-0.6	13%	438
11	Dark Angels	50% [43.8–56.2]	-1.4	18%	272
12	Death Guard	46.6% [41.3–51.9]	-2.7	5%	376
13	Deathwatch	49.2% [36.8–61.6] READ WITH CARE	-1.9	0%	63
14	Drukhari	45.9% [39.9–52]	-2.1	10%	284

#	FACTION	WIN RATE · 95% CI	REPRESENTATION · FIELD SHARE	ROUND Δ · ATTRITION	VP DIFF
15	Emperor’s Children	57.5% [52.2–62.6]	+3.9	37%	355
16	Genestealer Cults	42.6% [34.7–50.8] READ WITH CARE	-1.7	9%	156
17	Grey Knights	54.6% [47.2–61.7]	+0.9	6%	181
18	Imperial Agents	64.5% [46.9–78.9] READ WITH CARE	+10.3	0%	35
19	Imperial Knights	50.5% [45.8–55.2]	+1.3	10%	465
20	Leagues of Votann	50.2% [44.3–56.1]	-0.1	12%	299
21	Necrons	53.5% [49.5–57.4]	+0.3	32%	663
22	Orks	58.6% [53.5–63.4]	+5.3	32%	416
23	Space Marines	50.3% [46.2–54.3]	-1.3	43%	606
24	Space Wolves	49.1% [42.6–55.6]	-3.1	0%	232
25	T’au Empire	52.1% [48.1–56.1]	+0.4	39%	645
26	Thousand Sons	60.1% [55.4–64.7]	+5.7	37%	456
27	Tyranids	49.8% [45.7–53.8]	+1.3	23%	640
28	World Eaters	40% [34.6–45.7]	-5.2	6%	313

#	FACTION	WIN RATE · 95% CI	REPRESENTATION · FIELD SHARE	ROUND Δ · ATTRITION	VP DIFF
1	Adepta Sororitas	49.5% [42.7–56.3]	+0.2	8%	220
2	Adeptus Custodes	47.4% [43–51.9]	+0.2	11%	534
3	Adeptus Mechanicus	47.1% [39.9–54.5]	-3.4	6%	186
4	Aeldari	40% [34.1–46.2]	-4.7	0%	267
5	Astra Militarum	38.3% [33.2–43.7]	-6.2	6%	347
6	Black Templars	50.8% [41.9–59.7]	-2.3	9%	123
7	Blood Angels	49.3% [42.5–56]	+0	0%	216
8	Chaos Daemons	54.1% [48.5–59.6]	+3.7	11%	331
9	Chaos Knights	36.2% [30.2–42.7]	-5.1	7%	245
10	Chaos Space Marines	50.5% [45.7–55.3]	-0.6	13%	438
11	Dark Angels	50% [43.8–56.2]	-1.4	18%	272
12	Death Guard	46.6% [41.3–51.9]	-2.7	5%	376
13	Deathwatch	49.2% [36.8–61.6] READ WITH CARE	-1.9	0%	63
14	Drukhari	45.9% [39.9–52]	-2.1	10%	284

#	FACTION	WIN RATE · 95% CI	REPRESENTATION · FIELD SHARE	ROUND Δ · ATTRITION	VP DIFF
15	Emperor’s Children	57.5% [52.2–62.6]	+3.9	37%	355
16	Genestealer Cults	42.6% [34.7–50.8] READ WITH CARE	-1.7	9%	156
17	Grey Knights	54.6% [47.2–61.7]	+0.9	6%	181
18	Imperial Agents	64.5% [46.9–78.9] READ WITH CARE	+10.3	0%	35
19	Imperial Knights	50.5% [45.8–55.2]	+1.3	10%	465
20	Leagues of Votann	50.2% [44.3–56.1]	-0.1	12%	299
21	Necrons	53.5% [49.5–57.4]	+0.3	32%	663
22	Orks	58.6% [53.5–63.4]	+5.3	32%	416
23	Space Marines	50.3% [46.2–54.3]	-1.3	43%	606
24	Space Wolves	49.1% [42.6–55.6]	-3.1	0%	232
25	T’au Empire	52.1% [48.1–56.1]	+0.4	39%	645
26	Thousand Sons	60.1% [55.4–64.7]	+5.7	37%	456
27	Tyranids	49.8% [45.7–53.8]	+1.3	23%	640
28	World Eaters	40% [34.6–45.7]	-5.2	6%	313

COVERAGE

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MATCHUP MATRIX FACTION-VS-FACTION WIN RATE · HEAT-STRIPED AGAINST ROW BASELINE · LOW-N CELLS (< 5 GAMES) MUTED

First-party BCP tournament data — 5+ round events, faction-anonymous. Cells show the row faction’s win rate vs the column faction.

	Adepta Sororitas	Adeptus Custodes	Adeptus Mechanicus	Aeldari	Astra Militarum	Black Templars	Blood Angels	Chaos Daemons	Chaos Knights	Chaos Space Marines	Dark Angels	Death Guard	Deathwatch	Drukhari	Emperor’s Children	Genestealer Cults	Grey Knights	Imperial Agents	Imperial Knights	Leagues of Votann	Necrons	Orks	Space Marines	Space Wolves	Thousand Sons	Tyranids	T’au Empire	World Eaters
Adepta Sororitas		1		1	1	2	1	2	1	2	1	3	2	1	1	1			4	43	3	2	2	2	2	1	2
Adeptus Custodes	1	5	40		40			67	3	4	2	3	1	2	33	1	17		40	3	22	67	55	50	40	50	44	3
Adeptus Mechanicus		60		1		1	3	3	1	2	1	2	1	2	33	2	1			67	3	1	1	3	60	71	3	2
Aeldari	1		1	2	1		2			2	2	1			1				3	40	4	3	14		1	4	3	2
Astra Militarum	1	60		1			1			4	1	1	2		3		3		3	1	14	4	2	2	1	67	33	1
Black Templars	2		1				1	1	2	2	1				1		2	1	2		3			2		1		1
Blood Angels	1		3	2	1	1		3	1	3		2	1	2	2	1			2		2	1	2	1	1	1	1	1
Chaos Daemons	2	25	3			1	3			3	3	1		2	4		1		4	2	67	4	0		40	40	50	2
Chaos Knights	1	3	1			2	1			4	3	1	2	1	1		1		1	2	4	60	1	3	1	2	2	2
Chaos Space Marines	2	4	2	2	4	2	3	3	4	3	3	4		2	17		2		2	3	3	43	4	43	2	67	38	4
Dark Angels	1	2	1	2	1	1		3	3	3		3		40	1				60	2	33	2	1	2	57	4	33	1
Death Guard	3	3	2	1	1		2	1	1	4	3	1	2	3	2	1	2		4	67	43	4	20	4	2	4	50	2
Deathwatch	2	1	1		2		1		2			2	1				1				1		2	1	3	1	1	1
Drukhari	1	2	2				2	2	1	2	60	3		1	63	2	2		57	67	43	33	2		29	3	3	1
Emperor’s Children	1	67	67	1	3	1	2	4	1	83	1	2		38			4		2	4	44	1	38	3	50	29	2	2
Genestealer Cults	1	1	2				1					1		2		1	1				2	1	1	1	2	3	1	1
Grey Knights		83	1		3	2		1	1	2		2	1	2	4	1	2		3	3	67		3	1	1	3	2	1
Imperial Agents						1																	2		1		1
Imperial Knights	4	20		3	3	2	2	4	1	2	40	4		43	2		3		2	38	29	33	38	4	17	63	80	3
Leagues of Votann	57	3	17	60	1			2	2	3	2	11		33	4		3		63		56	20	75	80	3	56	4	4
Necrons	3	78	3	4	71	3	2	17	4	3	50	29	1	57	56	2	33		71	44	4	20	63	3	44	63	38	3
Orks	2	33	1	3	4		1	4	40	57	2	4		67	1	1			67	80	80		67	67	57	40	3	1
Space Marines	2	36	1	86	2		2	100	1	4	1	80	2	2	63	1	3	2	63	25	26	33	6	57	25	60	100	3
Space Wolves	2	50	3		2	2	1		3	57	2	4	1		3	1	1		4	20	3	33	43	2	3	33	17	60
Thousand Sons	2	60	40	1	1		1	60	1	2	43	2	3	71	50	2	1	1	83	3	56	43	75	3	2	40	45
Tyranids	1	33	14	4	33	1	1	60	2	33	4	4	1	3	71	3	3		38	44	38	60	40	50	60	5	33	50
T’au Empire	2	56	3	3	67		1	50	2	63	67	50	1	3	2	1	2	1	20	4	54	3	0	83	55	67	2	3
World Eaters		3	2	2	1	1	1	2	2	4	1	2	1	1	2	1	1		3	4	3	1	3	40		33	3	1

PER-EVENT AUDIT · 10 EVENTS

THE BIRMINGHAM 40K SUPER MAJOR July 5, 2026 · players · rounds
The North East Open 2026 July 5, 2026 · players · rounds
Leoben Summer Sprint 40K Singles 2026 - Alpine Cup July 5, 2026 · players · rounds
Gulf Tournament Circuit: Dubai July 5, 2026 · players · rounds
IV GT Tormenta de Hostias July 5, 2026 · players · rounds
SOLO KHAN 2026 Охота на Зотова July 5, 2026 · players · rounds
[9IQ] Checkmate GT @ AVCon July 5, 2026 · players · rounds
Geelong 40K Open 2026 July 5, 2026 · players · rounds
Summer Conflagration - 40K July 5, 2026 · players · rounds
Rally Point Open - Coshocton GT July 4, 2026 · players · rounds

MATCHUP MATRIX FACTION-VS-FACTION WIN RATE · HEAT-STRIPED AGAINST ROW BASELINE · LOW-N CELLS (< 5 GAMES) MUTED

First-party BCP tournament data — 5+ round events, faction-anonymous. Cells show the row faction’s win rate vs the column faction.

	Adepta Sororitas	Adeptus Custodes	Adeptus Mechanicus	Aeldari	Astra Militarum	Black Templars	Blood Angels	Chaos Daemons	Chaos Knights	Chaos Space Marines	Dark Angels	Death Guard	Deathwatch	Drukhari	Emperor’s Children	Genestealer Cults	Grey Knights	Imperial Agents	Imperial Knights	Leagues of Votann	Necrons	Orks	Space Marines	Space Wolves	Thousand Sons	Tyranids	T’au Empire	World Eaters
Adepta Sororitas	1	70	60	14	29	3	3	80	67	47	63	56	2	63	50	50	2	1	36	33	44	36	40	60	20	45	31	4
Adeptus Custodes	20	19	60	38	55	3	58	42	73	40	23	28	3	40	38	50	36	1	48	69	49	35	47	53	27	45	29	40
Adeptus Mechanicus	40	33		60	44	3	63	33	4	29	4	38	1	50	46	3	40	1	3	70	67	4	22	20	40	42	45	3
Aeldari	86	31	20	5	67	3	57	0	4	40	18	30		50	20	33	2		45	38	27	29	39	20	11	37	32	57
Astra Militarum	57	40	33	33	10	4	42	62	40	25	22	30	40	14	23	11	42		38	22	35	31	40	45	27	38	31	56
Black Templars	3	3	3	3	4	3	2	2	33	14	2	86	1	4	2	1	3	2	50	1	67	50	45	86	4	45	14	83
Blood Angels	3	42	25	43	42	2	5	44	3	58	1	38	3	20	50	4	2		50	17	60	45	57	4	56	50	38	88
Chaos Daemons	20	46	67	100	31	2	56	6	1	81	63	53		90	46	71	44	2	61	60	45	37	33	29	29	58	48	4
Chaos Knights	33	20	4	4	40	50	3	1	4	31	0	30	4	55	40	3	0	1	18	3	40	29	36	0	9	55	31	46
Chaos Space Marines	47	48	71	60	75	71	33	13	69	12	31	45	40	71	29	78	43		58	32	41	54	52	54	32	61	37	43
Dark Angels	38	69	4	73	56	2	1	25	70	62	3	40		43	38	4	33		46	63	32	31	44	40	29	35	50	40
Death Guard	33	72	50	70	60	0	50	35	50	45	47	11	2	19	8	29	83	1	33	50	30	29	36	50	27	50	44	67
Deathwatch	2	3	1		40	1	3		4	60		2	1	3	2	1	2				3	3	3	3	4	3	4	2
Drukhari	25	40	50	13	71	4	80	0	45	29	57	56	3	2	56	44	71	1	53	50	35	30	40	20	27	25	52	57
Emperor’s Children	38	62	54	80	77	2	50	46	60	65	54	92	2	39	5	57	75		50	55	51	50	45	78	40	46	58	67
Genestealer Cults	50	38	3	67	67	1	4	29	3	22	4	43	1	44	29	3	2	1	20	33	18	40	42	2	25	43	38	2
Grey Knights	2	64	40	2	58	3	2	44	100	57	67	17	2	29	25	2	2		43	50	60	4	70	1	20	38	50	67
Imperial Agents	1	1	1			2		2	1			1		1		1			3	1	3	2	63		1	2	2	2
Imperial Knights	50	41	3	45	62	50	38	35	65	42	31	61		42	50	60	57	3	13	30	41	39	41	57	41	60	51	50
Leagues of Votann	67	23	20	63	56	1	83	40	3	47	38	19		50	27	67	50	1	60	3	59	27	50	60	45	42	37	67
Necrons	56	44	33	73	54	33	33	41	53	52	63	56	3	47	46	64	33	3	59	41	24	38	56	50	44	50	57	65
Orks	50	60	4	71	54	50	55	47	43	42	50	50	3	50	42	40	4	2	54	64	50	2	50	70	64	55	52	61
Space Marines	50	47	67	61	53	55	43	62	57	44	50	59	3	60	55	50	30	25	56	50	34	47	20	40	42	40	42	47
Space Wolves	40	35	80	80	55	14	4	71	100	38	40	50	3	80	22	2	1		36	30	50	20	60	4	38	58	35	70
Thousand Sons	70	62	50	78	64	4	44	71	91	63	64	64	4	73	55	75	80	1	59	55	47	32	53	63	10	35	47	81
Tyranids	45	48	50	52	62	55	44	33	40	35	53	45	3	67	54	57	38	2	30	50	44	32	50	37	54	18	43	48
T’au Empire	62	50	55	64	62	71	62	48	56	53	50	52	4	33	42	50	50	2	44	53	36	41	50	59	44	50	22	45
World Eaters	4	60	3	36	44	17	13	4	38	43	50	25	2	43	25	2	33	2	44	33	30	28	42	30	19	48	55	4

PER-EVENT AUDIT · 42 EVENTS

THE BIRMINGHAM 40K SUPER MAJOR July 5, 2026 · players · rounds
The North East Open 2026 July 5, 2026 · players · rounds
Leoben Summer Sprint 40K Singles 2026 - Alpine Cup July 5, 2026 · players · rounds
Gulf Tournament Circuit: Dubai July 5, 2026 · players · rounds
IV GT Tormenta de Hostias July 5, 2026 · players · rounds
SOLO KHAN 2026 Охота на Зотова July 5, 2026 · players · rounds
[9IQ] Checkmate GT @ AVCon July 5, 2026 · players · rounds
Geelong 40K Open 2026 July 5, 2026 · players · rounds
Summer Conflagration - 40K July 5, 2026 · players · rounds
Rally Point Open - Coshocton GT July 4, 2026 · players · rounds
Treasure Trove Games - Warhammer 40k Cherry City GT 2026 June 29, 2026 · players · rounds
The PNW Warlord's TACOMA OPEN PREP GT June 28, 2026 · players · rounds
11th Teams Tournament: June Trench Trial June 28, 2026 · players · rounds
Heroes Cup Teams - Warhammer 40K June 28, 2026 · players · rounds
Second City Games Anniversary GT June 2026 ( 11th ed) June 28, 2026 · players · rounds
Hellpit Grand Tournament 2026 June 28, 2026 · players · rounds
The Circuit Breaker - A 40k GT June 28, 2026 · players · rounds
EI Commencing Armageddon: 11th Ed Kickoff GT June 28, 2026 · players · rounds
Battle For The Capital GT 2026 June 28, 2026 · players · rounds
Indy Open GT 2026: 11th Ed 40k June 28, 2026 · players · rounds
Incursion Events 40K 5 Player Teams GT 27-28/06/2026 June 28, 2026 · players · rounds
WH40K SWC: Qualifier 4 - June June 28, 2026 · players · rounds
Copenhagen Chainsword GT III June 28, 2026 · players · rounds
Dawn of 11th: Vår has passed June 28, 2026 · players · rounds
New Dawn GT 2026 June 28, 2026 · players · rounds
Hour Zero 3: Dawn of Heroes June 28, 2026 · players · rounds
II Iberian Open La Rioja June 28, 2026 · players · rounds
Flamey's Cup 2026 June 28, 2026 · players · rounds
ATC 2026 8-Player Event June 28, 2026 · players · rounds
ATC 2026 5-Player Event June 28, 2026 · players · rounds
Skull Crusher 2026 June 26, 2026 · players · rounds
11th Ed event - SPEEDHAMMER!!! June 28, 2026 · players · rounds
Wyvern Wargaming - July League August 3, 2026 · players · rounds
MINI tournament Ranking on June 2026 June 28, 2026 · players · rounds
Warhammer club June 24, 2026 · players · rounds
Kippers' Melee 2026 - 40k June 21, 2026 · players · rounds
Major Warfare: Road to Nova June 21, 2026 · players · rounds
GDG Summer Ruin II Warhammer 40K GT (11th Edition) June 21, 2026 · players · rounds
Midland Melee 11th Launch Party June 21, 2026 · players · rounds
Thess Tabletop June 21, 2026 · players · rounds
Orbital Thunder: Rebellion on Gaia: IX - 5 Player 40k Teams Event June 21, 2026 · players · rounds
Summercon 40k Open 11th Gold Ticket June 21, 2026 · players · rounds

MATCHUP MATRIX FACTION-VS-FACTION WIN RATE · HEAT-STRIPED AGAINST ROW BASELINE · LOW-N CELLS (< 5 GAMES) MUTED

First-party BCP tournament data — 5+ round events, faction-anonymous. Cells show the row faction’s win rate vs the column faction.

	Adepta Sororitas	Adeptus Custodes	Adeptus Mechanicus	Aeldari	Astra Militarum	Black Templars	Blood Angels	Chaos Daemons	Chaos Knights	Chaos Space Marines	Dark Angels	Death Guard	Deathwatch	Drukhari	Emperor’s Children	Genestealer Cults	Grey Knights	Imperial Agents	Imperial Knights	Leagues of Votann	Necrons	Orks	Space Marines	Space Wolves	Thousand Sons	Tyranids	T’au Empire	World Eaters
Adepta Sororitas	1	70	60	14	29	3	3	80	67	47	63	56	2	63	50	50	2	1	36	33	44	36	40	60	20	45	31	4
Adeptus Custodes	20	19	60	38	55	3	58	42	73	40	23	28	3	40	38	50	36	1	48	69	49	35	47	53	27	45	29	40
Adeptus Mechanicus	40	33		60	44	3	63	33	4	29	4	38	1	50	46	3	40	1	3	70	67	4	22	20	40	42	45	3
Aeldari	86	31	20	5	67	3	57	0	4	40	18	30		50	20	33	2		45	38	27	29	39	20	11	37	32	57
Astra Militarum	57	40	33	33	10	4	42	62	40	25	22	30	40	14	23	11	42		38	22	35	31	40	45	27	38	31	56
Black Templars	3	3	3	3	4	3	2	2	33	14	2	86	1	4	2	1	3	2	50	1	67	50	45	86	4	45	14	83
Blood Angels	3	42	25	43	42	2	5	44	3	58	1	38	3	20	50	4	2		50	17	60	45	57	4	56	50	38	88
Chaos Daemons	20	46	67	100	31	2	56	6	1	81	63	53		90	46	71	44	2	61	60	45	37	33	29	29	58	48	4
Chaos Knights	33	20	4	4	40	50	3	1	4	31	0	30	4	55	40	3	0	1	18	3	40	29	36	0	9	55	31	46
Chaos Space Marines	47	48	71	60	75	71	33	13	69	12	31	45	40	71	29	78	43		58	32	41	54	52	54	32	61	37	43
Dark Angels	38	69	4	73	56	2	1	25	70	62	3	40		43	38	4	33		46	63	32	31	44	40	29	35	50	40
Death Guard	33	72	50	70	60	0	50	35	50	45	47	11	2	19	8	29	83	1	33	50	30	29	36	50	27	50	44	67
Deathwatch	2	3	1		40	1	3		4	60		2	1	3	2	1	2				3	3	3	3	4	3	4	2
Drukhari	25	40	50	13	71	4	80	0	45	29	57	56	3	2	56	44	71	1	53	50	35	30	40	20	27	25	52	57
Emperor’s Children	38	62	54	80	77	2	50	46	60	65	54	92	2	39	5	57	75		50	55	51	50	45	78	40	46	58	67
Genestealer Cults	50	38	3	67	67	1	4	29	3	22	4	43	1	44	29	3	2	1	20	33	18	40	42	2	25	43	38	2
Grey Knights	2	64	40	2	58	3	2	44	100	57	67	17	2	29	25	2	2		43	50	60	4	70	1	20	38	50	67
Imperial Agents	1	1	1			2		2	1			1		1		1			3	1	3	2	63		1	2	2	2
Imperial Knights	50	41	3	45	62	50	38	35	65	42	31	61		42	50	60	57	3	13	30	41	39	41	57	41	60	51	50
Leagues of Votann	67	23	20	63	56	1	83	40	3	47	38	19		50	27	67	50	1	60	3	59	27	50	60	45	42	37	67
Necrons	56	44	33	73	54	33	33	41	53	52	63	56	3	47	46	64	33	3	59	41	24	38	56	50	44	50	57	65
Orks	50	60	4	71	54	50	55	47	43	42	50	50	3	50	42	40	4	2	54	64	50	2	50	70	64	55	52	61
Space Marines	50	47	67	61	53	55	43	62	57	44	50	59	3	60	55	50	30	25	56	50	34	47	20	40	42	40	42	47
Space Wolves	40	35	80	80	55	14	4	71	100	38	40	50	3	80	22	2	1		36	30	50	20	60	4	38	58	35	70
Thousand Sons	70	62	50	78	64	4	44	71	91	63	64	64	4	73	55	75	80	1	59	55	47	32	53	63	10	35	47	81
Tyranids	45	48	50	52	62	55	44	33	40	35	53	45	3	67	54	57	38	2	30	50	44	32	50	37	54	18	43	48
T’au Empire	62	50	55	64	62	71	62	48	56	53	50	52	4	33	42	50	50	2	44	53	36	41	50	59	44	50	22	45
World Eaters	4	60	3	36	44	17	13	4	38	43	50	25	2	43	25	2	33	2	44	33	30	28	42	30	19	48	55	4

PER-EVENT AUDIT · 42 EVENTS

THE BIRMINGHAM 40K SUPER MAJOR July 5, 2026 · players · rounds
The North East Open 2026 July 5, 2026 · players · rounds
Leoben Summer Sprint 40K Singles 2026 - Alpine Cup July 5, 2026 · players · rounds
Gulf Tournament Circuit: Dubai July 5, 2026 · players · rounds
IV GT Tormenta de Hostias July 5, 2026 · players · rounds
SOLO KHAN 2026 Охота на Зотова July 5, 2026 · players · rounds
[9IQ] Checkmate GT @ AVCon July 5, 2026 · players · rounds
Geelong 40K Open 2026 July 5, 2026 · players · rounds
Summer Conflagration - 40K July 5, 2026 · players · rounds
Rally Point Open - Coshocton GT July 4, 2026 · players · rounds
Treasure Trove Games - Warhammer 40k Cherry City GT 2026 June 29, 2026 · players · rounds
The PNW Warlord's TACOMA OPEN PREP GT June 28, 2026 · players · rounds
11th Teams Tournament: June Trench Trial June 28, 2026 · players · rounds
Heroes Cup Teams - Warhammer 40K June 28, 2026 · players · rounds
Second City Games Anniversary GT June 2026 ( 11th ed) June 28, 2026 · players · rounds
Hellpit Grand Tournament 2026 June 28, 2026 · players · rounds
The Circuit Breaker - A 40k GT June 28, 2026 · players · rounds
EI Commencing Armageddon: 11th Ed Kickoff GT June 28, 2026 · players · rounds
Battle For The Capital GT 2026 June 28, 2026 · players · rounds
Indy Open GT 2026: 11th Ed 40k June 28, 2026 · players · rounds
Incursion Events 40K 5 Player Teams GT 27-28/06/2026 June 28, 2026 · players · rounds
WH40K SWC: Qualifier 4 - June June 28, 2026 · players · rounds
Copenhagen Chainsword GT III June 28, 2026 · players · rounds
Dawn of 11th: Vår has passed June 28, 2026 · players · rounds
New Dawn GT 2026 June 28, 2026 · players · rounds
Hour Zero 3: Dawn of Heroes June 28, 2026 · players · rounds
II Iberian Open La Rioja June 28, 2026 · players · rounds
Flamey's Cup 2026 June 28, 2026 · players · rounds
ATC 2026 8-Player Event June 28, 2026 · players · rounds
ATC 2026 5-Player Event June 28, 2026 · players · rounds
Skull Crusher 2026 June 26, 2026 · players · rounds
11th Ed event - SPEEDHAMMER!!! June 28, 2026 · players · rounds
Wyvern Wargaming - July League August 3, 2026 · players · rounds
MINI tournament Ranking on June 2026 June 28, 2026 · players · rounds
Warhammer club June 24, 2026 · players · rounds
Kippers' Melee 2026 - 40k June 21, 2026 · players · rounds
Major Warfare: Road to Nova June 21, 2026 · players · rounds
GDG Summer Ruin II Warhammer 40K GT (11th Edition) June 21, 2026 · players · rounds
Midland Melee 11th Launch Party June 21, 2026 · players · rounds
Thess Tabletop June 21, 2026 · players · rounds
Orbital Thunder: Rebellion on Gaia: IX - 5 Player 40k Teams Event June 21, 2026 · players · rounds
Summercon 40k Open 11th Gold Ticket June 21, 2026 · players · rounds

MARGIN PROFILE HOW DOMINANTLY EACH FACTION WINS AND LOSES · BLOWOUT & CLOSENESS RATES

FACTION	GAMES	AVG MARGIN (WIN)	AVG MARGIN (LOSS)	BLOWOUT %	CLOSENESS %
Adepta Sororitas	46	28	22.5	8.7%	28.3%
Adeptus Custodes	126	30.1	29.8	16.7%	22.2%
Adeptus Mechanicus	63	20.1	26.3	7.9%	38.1%
Aeldari	45	32.4	28.2	11.1%	20%
Astra Militarum	55	27.6	32.1	5.5%	18.2%
Black Templars	23	11.2	25.8	0%	30.4%
Blood Angels	35	23	25.6	2.9%	31.4%
Chaos Daemons	74	33.8	22.2	17.6%	27%
Chaos Knights	44	23.4	33.3	9.1%	27.3%
Chaos Space Marines	97	22.9	28.1	8.3%	22.7%
Dark Angels	65	24.4	31.3	7.7%	21.5%
Death Guard	79	23.5	42.6	12.7%	20.3%
Deathwatch	25	38.2	23.7	20%	16%
Drukhari	80	25.9	28.5	13.8%	27.5%
Emperor’s Children	93	34.2	36	18.3%	19.4%
Genestealer Cults	22	31.9	19.2	13.6%	18.2%
Grey Knights	51	23	23.2	7.8%	23.5%
Imperial Agents	5	38.7	25	20%	0%
Imperial Knights	104	35.9	31.3	19.2%	21.2%
Leagues of Votann	108	25.3	30.7	12%	30.6%
Necrons	170	27.8	27.3	14.1%	24.1%
Orks	97	38.5	26.8	24.7%	16.5%
Space Marines	146	26.2	31.9	12.3%	21.2%
Space Wolves	85	22.6	30.6	7.1%	24.7%
T’au Empire	120	26	23.3	12.5%	27.5%
Thousand Sons	113	33.7	31.9	21.2%	15%
Tyranids	147	31	25.1	15%	21.1%
World Eaters	56	29.1	31.9	8.9%	25%

REPRESENTATION POPULATION SHARE · TOP-CUT SHARE · OVERREP INDEX

FACTION	POP SHARE	TOP-CUT SHARE	OVERREP
Adepta Sororitas	2.12%	0%	—
Adeptus Custodes	5.8%	3.85%	0.66x
Adeptus Mechanicus	2.9%	0%	—
Aeldari	2.07%	0%	—
Astra Militarum	2.53%	0%	—
Black Templars	1.06%	0%	—
Blood Angels	1.61%	0%	—
Chaos Daemons	3.4%	3.85%	1.13x
Chaos Knights	2.02%	0%	—
Chaos Space Marines	4.46%	3.85%	0.86x
Dark Angels	2.99%	7.69%	2.57x
Death Guard	3.63%	3.85%	1.06x
Deathwatch	1.15%	0%	—
Drukhari	3.68%	0%	—
Emperor’s Children	4.28%	11.54%	2.7x
Genestealer Cults	1.01%	0%	—
Grey Knights	2.35%	3.85%	1.64x
Imperial Agents	0.23%	0%	—
Imperial Knights	4.78%	3.85%	0.8x
Leagues of Votann	4.97%	0%	—
Necrons	7.82%	11.54%	1.48x
Orks	4.46%	3.85%	0.86x
Space Marines	6.72%	19.23%	2.86x
Space Wolves	3.91%	0%	—
T’au Empire	5.52%	7.69%	1.39x
Thousand Sons	5.2%	7.69%	1.48x
Tyranids	6.76%	7.69%	1.14x
World Eaters	2.58%	0%	—

CONSISTENCY PROFILE CROSS-EVENT WR σ · VP SCORE σ · MIRROR-MATCH MARGIN

FACTION	EVENTS	CROSS-EVENT σ	VP SCORE σ	AVG MIRROR MARGIN	MIRROR N
Adepta Sororitas	6	0.112	30.9	—	0
Adeptus Custodes	8	0.161	29.6	±24.8 VP	5
Adeptus Mechanicus	9	0.166	27.1	—	0
Aeldari	6	0.129	21.3	±16 VP	2
Astra Militarum	8	0.165	21.4	—	0
Black Templars	5	0.085	29.6	—	0
Blood Angels	5	0.148	28.5	—	0
Chaos Daemons	9	0.25	25	—	0
Chaos Knights	8	0.248	31.3	—	0
Chaos Space Marines	8	0.072	25.8	±21 VP	3
Dark Angels	7	0.153	31.3	—	0
Death Guard	8	0.263	25.1	—	1
Deathwatch	5	0.359	19.1	—	1
Drukhari	6	0.137	29.8	—	1
Emperor’s Children	7	0.147	23.6	—	0
Genestealer Cults	4	0.078	13.2	—	1
Grey Knights	7	0.19	18.4	±10 VP	2
Imperial Agents	1	—	15.9	—	0
Imperial Knights	9	0.111	28.4	±68 VP	2
Leagues of Votann	9	0.169	23.7	—	0
Necrons	10	0.128	25.2	±17 VP	4
Orks	10	0.091	30.6	—	0
Space Marines	8	0.141	22.4	±16.3 VP	6
Space Wolves	8	0.105	25.7	±9.5 VP	2
T’au Empire	8	0.132	19.7	±9.5 VP	2
Thousand Sons	9	0.214	27.6	±61 VP	2
Tyranids	9	0.076	22	±31 VP	5
World Eaters	6	0.154	23.5	—	1

ROUND ATTRITION PER-ROUND WIN RATE BY FACTION · ROUND 1 IS MOSTLY RANDOM, FINAL ROUNDS REFLECT TOP-TABLE COMPETITION

FACTION	GAMES	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	Δ ROUND
Adepta Sororitas	46	27.3%	50%	66.7%	85.7%	44.4%	—	—	—
Adeptus Custodes	126	52.2%	50%	50%	72.7%	46.2%	—	—	-6 pp
Adeptus Mechanicus	63	50%	69.2%	41.7%	50%	75%	—	—	+25 pp
Aeldari	45	77.8%	11.1%	18.2%	37.5%	25%	—	—	-59.6 pp
Astra Militarum	55	38.5%	25%	27.3%	66.7%	50%	—	—	-11.2 pp
Black Templars	23	16.7%	25%	25%	25%	20%	—	—	—
Blood Angels	35	66.7%	42.9%	57.1%	12.5%	16.7%	—	—	—
Chaos Daemons	74	71.4%	50%	64.3%	35.7%	30.8%	—	—	-40.7 pp
Chaos Knights	44	25%	44.4%	37.5%	71.4%	50%	—	—	+25 pp
Chaos Space Marines	97	21.1%	44.4%	40%	64.7%	47.4%	100%	0%	+26.3 pp
Dark Angels	65	41.7%	25%	61.5%	55.6%	61.5%	—	—	+19.9 pp
Death Guard	79	80%	47.1%	50%	71.4%	33.3%	—	—	-46.7 pp
Deathwatch	25	25%	80%	50%	50%	20%	—	—	—
Drukhari	80	33.3%	40%	46.7%	52.9%	60%	—	—	+26.7 pp
Emperor’s Children	93	77.8%	47.1%	52.6%	57.9%	61.1%	—	—	-16.7 pp
Genestealer Cults	22	33.3%	20%	75%	66.7%	25%	—	—	—
Grey Knights	51	45.5%	80%	63.6%	20%	66.7%	—	—	-25.4 pp
Imperial Agents	5	0%	0%	100%	100%	100%	—	—	—
Imperial Knights	104	47.6%	45%	47.1%	38.1%	65.2%	—	—	+17.6 pp
Leagues of Votann	108	57.1%	45%	50%	54.6%	47.6%	—	—	-9.5 pp
Necrons	170	65.6%	53.3%	53.1%	48.5%	55.9%	—	—	-9.7 pp
Orks	97	57.9%	66.7%	60%	47.4%	47.4%	—	—	-10.5 pp
Space Marines	146	37.9%	64.3%	51.7%	60.7%	50%	—	—	+12.1 pp
Space Wolves	85	35.3%	62.5%	56.3%	29.4%	47.1%	—	—	+11.8 pp
T’au Empire	120	56%	56%	60.9%	39.1%	54.6%	0%	—	-1.5 pp
Thousand Sons	113	70.8%	50%	45%	50%	47.4%	100%	100%	-23.5 pp
Tyranids	147	55.6%	48.2%	36.7%	44.8%	48.3%	0%	—	-7.3 pp
World Eaters	56	9.1%	36.4%	50%	36.4%	54.6%	—	—	+45.5 pp

MARGIN PROFILE HOW DOMINANTLY EACH FACTION WINS AND LOSES · BLOWOUT & CLOSENESS RATES

FACTION	GAMES	AVG MARGIN (WIN)	AVG MARGIN (LOSS)	BLOWOUT %	CLOSENESS %
Adepta Sororitas	220	18.7	18	5%	38.2%
Adeptus Custodes	534	24.5	21.7	9.9%	33.2%
Adeptus Mechanicus	186	19.2	23.9	5.9%	34.4%
Aeldari	267	15.7	18.8	2.3%	39.7%
Astra Militarum	347	19.3	22.8	3.8%	31.4%
Black Templars	123	19.7	25.3	5.7%	36.6%
Blood Angels	216	24	23.3	8.8%	25.5%
Chaos Daemons	331	22	17.1	8.5%	35.4%
Chaos Knights	245	20.7	20.5	4.9%	36.7%
Chaos Space Marines	438	19.9	21.6	7.3%	30.6%
Dark Angels	272	18.9	22	5.1%	34.9%
Death Guard	376	18.5	21.8	5.9%	38.8%
Deathwatch	63	25.7	28.8	9.5%	25.4%
Drukhari	284	18.6	20.2	5.3%	40.5%
Emperor’s Children	355	27.3	27.3	12.4%	22.8%
Genestealer Cults	156	17.2	16	3.2%	41.7%
Grey Knights	181	21.6	23.9	6.6%	29.3%
Imperial Agents	35	33	27.3	22.9%	20%
Imperial Knights	465	25	22.8	10.3%	31.6%
Leagues of Votann	299	21.8	22.2	8%	35.1%
Necrons	663	19.9	22.1	7.4%	36.1%
Orks	416	24.5	20.4	11.1%	33.4%
Space Marines	606	21.8	24.7	7.8%	28.6%
Space Wolves	232	18.6	24.2	5.2%	32.3%
T’au Empire	645	20.5	21.5	7.6%	33.6%
Thousand Sons	456	24.6	21.9	10.5%	26.1%
Tyranids	640	23.9	20.8	9.5%	31.3%
World Eaters	313	23.2	24.6	8%	27.5%

REPRESENTATION POPULATION SHARE · TOP-CUT SHARE · OVERREP INDEX

FACTION	POP SHARE	TOP-CUT SHARE	OVERREP
Adepta Sororitas	2.35%	1.41%	0.6x
Adeptus Custodes	5.7%	2.82%	0.49x
Adeptus Mechanicus	1.99%	1.41%	0.71x
Aeldari	2.85%	0%	—
Astra Militarum	3.71%	1.41%	0.38x
Black Templars	1.31%	1.41%	1.07x
Blood Angels	2.31%	0%	—
Chaos Daemons	3.53%	2.82%	0.8x
Chaos Knights	2.62%	1.41%	0.54x
Chaos Space Marines	4.68%	2.82%	0.6x
Dark Angels	2.9%	4.23%	1.45x
Death Guard	4.02%	1.41%	0.35x
Deathwatch	0.67%	0%	—
Drukhari	3.03%	1.41%	0.46x
Emperor’s Children	3.79%	9.86%	2.6x
Genestealer Cults	1.67%	1.41%	0.85x
Grey Knights	1.93%	1.41%	0.73x
Imperial Agents	0.37%	0%	—
Imperial Knights	4.97%	2.82%	0.57x
Leagues of Votann	3.19%	2.82%	0.88x
Necrons	7.08%	9.86%	1.39x
Orks	4.44%	8.45%	1.9x
Space Marines	6.47%	12.68%	1.96x
Space Wolves	2.48%	0%	—
T’au Empire	6.89%	9.86%	1.43x
Thousand Sons	4.87%	9.86%	2.02x
Tyranids	6.83%	7.04%	1.03x
World Eaters	3.34%	1.41%	0.42x

CONSISTENCY PROFILE CROSS-EVENT WR σ · VP SCORE σ · MIRROR-MATCH MARGIN

FACTION	EVENTS	CROSS-EVENT σ	VP SCORE σ	AVG MIRROR MARGIN	MIRROR N
Adepta Sororitas	20	0.144	37	—	1
Adeptus Custodes	31	0.209	37	±15.9 VP	19
Adeptus Mechanicus	24	0.17	35.1	—	0
Aeldari	24	0.197	35.5	±9.2 VP	5
Astra Militarum	26	0.178	35.2	±18.8 VP	10
Black Templars	20	0.189	33.8	±24.7 VP	3
Blood Angels	24	0.177	36.4	±13.4 VP	5
Chaos Daemons	27	0.19	36.7	±9.8 VP	6
Chaos Knights	24	0.244	32.7	±10.8 VP	4
Chaos Space Marines	25	0.168	35.3	±16.3 VP	12
Dark Angels	26	0.232	36.1	±8.7 VP	3
Death Guard	29	0.223	35.1	±12.7 VP	11
Deathwatch	13	0.298	34.1	—	1
Drukhari	22	0.158	36.9	±13 VP	2
Emperor’s Children	29	0.189	35.3	±46.4 VP	5
Genestealer Cults	20	0.132	36.6	±13.7 VP	3
Grey Knights	27	0.176	33.3	±10 VP	2
Imperial Agents	7	0.35	38.5	—	0
Imperial Knights	34	0.144	36.1	±29.5 VP	13
Leagues of Votann	25	0.223	36.5	±16 VP	3
Necrons	35	0.163	36.6	±19.7 VP	24
Orks	32	0.13	37.2	±32 VP	2
Space Marines	32	0.133	35.1	±32.1 VP	20
Space Wolves	24	0.201	35	±7.3 VP	4
T’au Empire	31	0.153	36.3	±16.1 VP	22
Thousand Sons	31	0.212	37.5	±35.3 VP	10
Tyranids	34	0.129	37	±18.2 VP	18
World Eaters	27	0.146	35.4	±22.3 VP	4

ROUND ATTRITION PER-ROUND WIN RATE BY FACTION · ROUND 1 IS MOSTLY RANDOM, FINAL ROUNDS REFLECT TOP-TABLE COMPETITION

FACTION	GAMES	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	Δ ROUND
Adepta Sororitas	220	47.7%	52.4%	59.5%	50%	35.1%	100%	—	-12.6 pp
Adeptus Custodes	534	52%	48.1%	46.4%	47.3%	43.3%	33.3%	—	-8.7 pp
Adeptus Mechanicus	186	48.6%	51.4%	43.2%	45.2%	48.5%	0%	—	-0.1 pp
Aeldari	267	53.9%	33.3%	35.9%	26.5%	50%	100%	—	-3.8 pp
Astra Militarum	347	33.8%	47%	36.6%	36.2%	38.2%	33.3%	—	+4.4 pp
Black Templars	123	46.2%	59.1%	43.5%	52.2%	52.2%	100%	—	+6 pp
Blood Angels	216	59%	45.2%	51.2%	42.9%	50%	0%	—	-9 pp
Chaos Daemons	331	61.7%	54%	59.7%	55%	41.4%	0%	—	-20.3 pp
Chaos Knights	245	28.3%	33.3%	31.1%	48.8%	40.5%	—	—	+12.2 pp
Chaos Space Marines	438	45.4%	49.4%	51.2%	61.5%	45.6%	100%	0%	+0.2 pp
Dark Angels	272	52%	38.5%	49.1%	55.8%	57.5%	0%	—	+5.5 pp
Death Guard	376	49.3%	44.3%	47.1%	43.7%	49.1%	—	—	-0.1 pp
Deathwatch	63	36.4%	69.2%	60%	38.5%	41.7%	—	—	+5.3 pp
Drukhari	284	42.1%	50.9%	41.2%	46.8%	49%	—	—	+6.9 pp
Emperor’s Children	355	60.3%	54.6%	58%	57.8%	55.4%	100%	—	-4.9 pp
Genestealer Cults	156	37.9%	35.5%	53.6%	37.5%	50%	0%	—	+12.1 pp
Grey Knights	181	36.8%	68.4%	63.9%	39.4%	65.5%	50%	—	+28.7 pp
Imperial Agents	35	50%	57.1%	100%	57.1%	66.7%	—	—	—
Imperial Knights	465	46.2%	51.2%	51.2%	46.3%	58.6%	25%	—	+12.5 pp
Leagues of Votann	299	58.2%	37%	50%	50.9%	55.4%	0%	—	-2.8 pp
Necrons	663	56.8%	55.9%	55.7%	50.4%	48.7%	33.3%	—	-8.1 pp
Orks	416	53.3%	64.9%	57%	55.6%	61.6%	100%	—	+8.3 pp
Space Marines	606	50%	51.7%	47.9%	54.6%	47.3%	50%	—	-2.7 pp
Space Wolves	232	39.1%	54.8%	54.8%	51.1%	46.7%	50%	—	+7.5 pp
T’au Empire	645	54.1%	54.5%	54.3%	52.2%	44.8%	60%	—	-9.3 pp
Thousand Sons	456	58%	64.8%	56.1%	61.6%	59%	66.7%	100%	+1 pp
Tyranids	640	56.6%	44.2%	44.5%	50%	52.2%	80%	—	-4.3 pp
World Eaters	313	39%	37.7%	35%	41.4%	46.4%	100%	—	+7.5 pp

MARGIN PROFILE HOW DOMINANTLY EACH FACTION WINS AND LOSES · BLOWOUT & CLOSENESS RATES

FACTION	GAMES	AVG MARGIN (WIN)	AVG MARGIN (LOSS)	BLOWOUT %	CLOSENESS %
Adepta Sororitas	220	18.7	18	5%	38.2%
Adeptus Custodes	534	24.5	21.7	9.9%	33.2%
Adeptus Mechanicus	186	19.2	23.9	5.9%	34.4%
Aeldari	267	15.7	18.8	2.3%	39.7%
Astra Militarum	347	19.3	22.8	3.8%	31.4%
Black Templars	123	19.7	25.3	5.7%	36.6%
Blood Angels	216	24	23.3	8.8%	25.5%
Chaos Daemons	331	22	17.1	8.5%	35.4%
Chaos Knights	245	20.7	20.5	4.9%	36.7%
Chaos Space Marines	438	19.9	21.6	7.3%	30.6%
Dark Angels	272	18.9	22	5.1%	34.9%
Death Guard	376	18.5	21.8	5.9%	38.8%
Deathwatch	63	25.7	28.8	9.5%	25.4%
Drukhari	284	18.6	20.2	5.3%	40.5%
Emperor’s Children	355	27.3	27.3	12.4%	22.8%
Genestealer Cults	156	17.2	16	3.2%	41.7%
Grey Knights	181	21.6	23.9	6.6%	29.3%
Imperial Agents	35	33	27.3	22.9%	20%
Imperial Knights	465	25	22.8	10.3%	31.6%
Leagues of Votann	299	21.8	22.2	8%	35.1%
Necrons	663	19.9	22.1	7.4%	36.1%
Orks	416	24.5	20.4	11.1%	33.4%
Space Marines	606	21.8	24.7	7.8%	28.6%
Space Wolves	232	18.6	24.2	5.2%	32.3%
T’au Empire	645	20.5	21.5	7.6%	33.6%
Thousand Sons	456	24.6	21.9	10.5%	26.1%
Tyranids	640	23.9	20.8	9.5%	31.3%
World Eaters	313	23.2	24.6	8%	27.5%

REPRESENTATION POPULATION SHARE · TOP-CUT SHARE · OVERREP INDEX

FACTION	POP SHARE	TOP-CUT SHARE	OVERREP
Adepta Sororitas	2.35%	1.41%	0.6x
Adeptus Custodes	5.7%	2.82%	0.49x
Adeptus Mechanicus	1.99%	1.41%	0.71x
Aeldari	2.85%	0%	—
Astra Militarum	3.71%	1.41%	0.38x
Black Templars	1.31%	1.41%	1.07x
Blood Angels	2.31%	0%	—
Chaos Daemons	3.53%	2.82%	0.8x
Chaos Knights	2.62%	1.41%	0.54x
Chaos Space Marines	4.68%	2.82%	0.6x
Dark Angels	2.9%	4.23%	1.45x
Death Guard	4.02%	1.41%	0.35x
Deathwatch	0.67%	0%	—
Drukhari	3.03%	1.41%	0.46x
Emperor’s Children	3.79%	9.86%	2.6x
Genestealer Cults	1.67%	1.41%	0.85x
Grey Knights	1.93%	1.41%	0.73x
Imperial Agents	0.37%	0%	—
Imperial Knights	4.97%	2.82%	0.57x
Leagues of Votann	3.19%	2.82%	0.88x
Necrons	7.08%	9.86%	1.39x
Orks	4.44%	8.45%	1.9x
Space Marines	6.47%	12.68%	1.96x
Space Wolves	2.48%	0%	—
T’au Empire	6.89%	9.86%	1.43x
Thousand Sons	4.87%	9.86%	2.02x
Tyranids	6.83%	7.04%	1.03x
World Eaters	3.34%	1.41%	0.42x

CONSISTENCY PROFILE CROSS-EVENT WR σ · VP SCORE σ · MIRROR-MATCH MARGIN

FACTION	EVENTS	CROSS-EVENT σ	VP SCORE σ	AVG MIRROR MARGIN	MIRROR N
Adepta Sororitas	20	0.144	37	—	1
Adeptus Custodes	31	0.209	37	±15.9 VP	19
Adeptus Mechanicus	24	0.17	35.1	—	0
Aeldari	24	0.197	35.5	±9.2 VP	5
Astra Militarum	26	0.178	35.2	±18.8 VP	10
Black Templars	20	0.189	33.8	±24.7 VP	3
Blood Angels	24	0.177	36.4	±13.4 VP	5
Chaos Daemons	27	0.19	36.7	±9.8 VP	6
Chaos Knights	24	0.244	32.7	±10.8 VP	4
Chaos Space Marines	25	0.168	35.3	±16.3 VP	12
Dark Angels	26	0.232	36.1	±8.7 VP	3
Death Guard	29	0.223	35.1	±12.7 VP	11
Deathwatch	13	0.298	34.1	—	1
Drukhari	22	0.158	36.9	±13 VP	2
Emperor’s Children	29	0.189	35.3	±46.4 VP	5
Genestealer Cults	20	0.132	36.6	±13.7 VP	3
Grey Knights	27	0.176	33.3	±10 VP	2
Imperial Agents	7	0.35	38.5	—	0
Imperial Knights	34	0.144	36.1	±29.5 VP	13
Leagues of Votann	25	0.223	36.5	±16 VP	3
Necrons	35	0.163	36.6	±19.7 VP	24
Orks	32	0.13	37.2	±32 VP	2
Space Marines	32	0.133	35.1	±32.1 VP	20
Space Wolves	24	0.201	35	±7.3 VP	4
T’au Empire	31	0.153	36.3	±16.1 VP	22
Thousand Sons	31	0.212	37.5	±35.3 VP	10
Tyranids	34	0.129	37	±18.2 VP	18
World Eaters	27	0.146	35.4	±22.3 VP	4

ROUND ATTRITION PER-ROUND WIN RATE BY FACTION · ROUND 1 IS MOSTLY RANDOM, FINAL ROUNDS REFLECT TOP-TABLE COMPETITION

FACTION	GAMES	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	Δ ROUND
Adepta Sororitas	220	47.7%	52.4%	59.5%	50%	35.1%	100%	—	-12.6 pp
Adeptus Custodes	534	52%	48.1%	46.4%	47.3%	43.3%	33.3%	—	-8.7 pp
Adeptus Mechanicus	186	48.6%	51.4%	43.2%	45.2%	48.5%	0%	—	-0.1 pp
Aeldari	267	53.9%	33.3%	35.9%	26.5%	50%	100%	—	-3.8 pp
Astra Militarum	347	33.8%	47%	36.6%	36.2%	38.2%	33.3%	—	+4.4 pp
Black Templars	123	46.2%	59.1%	43.5%	52.2%	52.2%	100%	—	+6 pp
Blood Angels	216	59%	45.2%	51.2%	42.9%	50%	0%	—	-9 pp
Chaos Daemons	331	61.7%	54%	59.7%	55%	41.4%	0%	—	-20.3 pp
Chaos Knights	245	28.3%	33.3%	31.1%	48.8%	40.5%	—	—	+12.2 pp
Chaos Space Marines	438	45.4%	49.4%	51.2%	61.5%	45.6%	100%	0%	+0.2 pp
Dark Angels	272	52%	38.5%	49.1%	55.8%	57.5%	0%	—	+5.5 pp
Death Guard	376	49.3%	44.3%	47.1%	43.7%	49.1%	—	—	-0.1 pp
Deathwatch	63	36.4%	69.2%	60%	38.5%	41.7%	—	—	+5.3 pp
Drukhari	284	42.1%	50.9%	41.2%	46.8%	49%	—	—	+6.9 pp
Emperor’s Children	355	60.3%	54.6%	58%	57.8%	55.4%	100%	—	-4.9 pp
Genestealer Cults	156	37.9%	35.5%	53.6%	37.5%	50%	0%	—	+12.1 pp
Grey Knights	181	36.8%	68.4%	63.9%	39.4%	65.5%	50%	—	+28.7 pp
Imperial Agents	35	50%	57.1%	100%	57.1%	66.7%	—	—	—
Imperial Knights	465	46.2%	51.2%	51.2%	46.3%	58.6%	25%	—	+12.5 pp
Leagues of Votann	299	58.2%	37%	50%	50.9%	55.4%	0%	—	-2.8 pp
Necrons	663	56.8%	55.9%	55.7%	50.4%	48.7%	33.3%	—	-8.1 pp
Orks	416	53.3%	64.9%	57%	55.6%	61.6%	100%	—	+8.3 pp
Space Marines	606	50%	51.7%	47.9%	54.6%	47.3%	50%	—	-2.7 pp
Space Wolves	232	39.1%	54.8%	54.8%	51.1%	46.7%	50%	—	+7.5 pp
T’au Empire	645	54.1%	54.5%	54.3%	52.2%	44.8%	60%	—	-9.3 pp
Thousand Sons	456	58%	64.8%	56.1%	61.6%	59%	66.7%	100%	+1 pp
Tyranids	640	56.6%	44.2%	44.5%	50%	52.2%	80%	—	-4.3 pp
World Eaters	313	39%	37.7%	35%	41.4%	46.4%	100%	—	+7.5 pp

PROTOCOL · INTERACTIVE TOOL

DISPOSITION EXPLORER

Pivot the faction → detachment → Force Disposition data four ways — which posture wins for a build, which builds win a posture, and the army-agnostic disposition×disposition and disposition-agnostic build×build matchups. Every view carries a plain-language verdict that is gated on the sample: a leader is named only when its 95% interval clears the rest, never by sorting and crowning.

Faction×detachment×disposition is roughly 1,300 cells; even a healthy season spreads only a few thousand games across them. This tool is built so the uncertainty is the most visible thing on screen — it refuses to declare findings the sample can’t support. On reading these limits, see What the Numbers Can Bear and Six Bins.

Lens

Format

Thin cells

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Win rates are the Archive’s own first-party measurement from the weekly tournament pull — not republished aggregator tables. Verdicts come from confidence-interval separation only; no p-values. The build×disposition data (the BUILD → DISP and DISP → BUILD lenses) begins with the first post-11th-edition pull on Friday 3 July 2026.

TWO-ELO RATING SYSTEM · PROVISIONAL

RAW Performance against other players, regardless of faction.

PERF-ADJ Net of the factions’ observed strength this season — the Performance composite.

Faction premium = adjusted − raw. Positive (adjusted above raw): the player is exceeding what their faction predicts — a skill signal. Negative: the faction is doing the lifting. This is the “is it the player or the army?” read.

BIGGEST SKILL PREMIUM

PERF-ADJ FURTHEST ABOVE RAW · THE GENUINE SKILL SIGNAL

BIGGEST FACTION LIFT

PERF-ADJ FURTHEST BELOW RAW · FACTION DOING THE LIFTING

TOP-50 LEADERBOARD · EDITION 11E

CLICK A RATING HEADER TO SORT · CLICK A NAME FOR ITS RATING NEIGHBORS · DEFAULT: RAW ↓

SEARCH ROSTER

#	PLAYER	RAW ↓	PERF-ADJ	P-PREMIUM	G	RECENT FACTIONS

FACTION PERFORMANCE

COVERAGE

MATCHUP MATRIX FACTION-VS-FACTION WIN RATE · HEAT-STRIPED AGAINST ROW BASELINE · LOW-N CELLS (< 5 GAMES) MUTED

MATCHUP MATRIX FACTION-VS-FACTION WIN RATE · HEAT-STRIPED AGAINST ROW BASELINE · LOW-N CELLS (< 5 GAMES) MUTED

MATCHUP MATRIX FACTION-VS-FACTION WIN RATE · HEAT-STRIPED AGAINST ROW BASELINE · LOW-N CELLS (< 5 GAMES) MUTED

MARGIN PROFILE HOW DOMINANTLY EACH FACTION WINS AND LOSES · BLOWOUT & CLOSENESS RATES

REPRESENTATION POPULATION SHARE · TOP-CUT SHARE · OVERREP INDEX

CONSISTENCY PROFILE CROSS-EVENT WR σ · VP SCORE σ · MIRROR-MATCH MARGIN

ROUND ATTRITION PER-ROUND WIN RATE BY FACTION · ROUND 1 IS MOSTLY RANDOM, FINAL ROUNDS REFLECT TOP-TABLE COMPETITION

MARGIN PROFILE HOW DOMINANTLY EACH FACTION WINS AND LOSES · BLOWOUT & CLOSENESS RATES

REPRESENTATION POPULATION SHARE · TOP-CUT SHARE · OVERREP INDEX

CONSISTENCY PROFILE CROSS-EVENT WR σ · VP SCORE σ · MIRROR-MATCH MARGIN

ROUND ATTRITION PER-ROUND WIN RATE BY FACTION · ROUND 1 IS MOSTLY RANDOM, FINAL ROUNDS REFLECT TOP-TABLE COMPETITION

MARGIN PROFILE HOW DOMINANTLY EACH FACTION WINS AND LOSES · BLOWOUT & CLOSENESS RATES

REPRESENTATION POPULATION SHARE · TOP-CUT SHARE · OVERREP INDEX

CONSISTENCY PROFILE CROSS-EVENT WR σ · VP SCORE σ · MIRROR-MATCH MARGIN

ROUND ATTRITION PER-ROUND WIN RATE BY FACTION · ROUND 1 IS MOSTLY RANDOM, FINAL ROUNDS REFLECT TOP-TABLE COMPETITION

DISPOSITION EXPLORER

BIGGEST SKILL PREMIUM

BIGGEST FACTION LIFT

TOP-50 LEADERBOARD · EDITION 11E

WEEKLY MOVERS · RAW RATING DELTA